A new report with BiltData.ai forecasts a $2.85 trillion U.S. construction market by 2031, highlighting the states, metro areas and sectors where dealers, rental companies and fleet owners may need to prepare next.
U.S. construction spending is expected to rise significantly, and that growth will not be spread evenly across the country. It will be concentrated in specific states, metropolitan areas and sectors, including data centers, industrial construction, residential building, infrastructure and agriculture. Merlo America is using that data to speak directly to companies planning fleets, inventory, service coverage and commercial networks.
The forecast comes from the National Construction Spending Trends Report, developed by Merlo America with BiltData.ai, a sales intelligence software for construction equipment dealers. The report projects that U.S. construction spending will grow from $2.22 trillion in 2026 to $2.85 trillion in 2031, adding more than $600 billion in five years. For contractors, equipment dealers and rental companies, that increase points to where machines, service teams and rental fleets may be needed next.
“Every business in our industry is making decisions today that will shape the next five years. Whether you’re investing in equipment, expanding a branch or growing a service team, understanding where demand is heading gives you a real advantage. That’s exactly what this report is designed to help with.”
Said Cole Renken, General Manager of Merlo America.
According to the report, California, Texas, Florida, New York and New Jersey are expected to account for about 42% of U.S. construction spending by 2031. The country’s top 10 metropolitan areas are projected to represent more than one-third of total construction spending.
The New York-Newark-Jersey City metropolitan area is forecast to lead the U.S. market with $230 billion in construction spending by 2031, equal to roughly 8% of the national total. Los Angeles, Chicago, Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston are also expected to remain among the largest construction markets.
Beyond traditional building activity, the report points to data centers as one of the strongest demand drivers. AI, cloud computing and digital infrastructure are accelerating investment in large-scale facilities, power systems, site preparation and supporting infrastructure. The top 12 metropolitan markets are projected to account for nearly 73% of all U.S. data center capacity by 2031.
For the equipment sector, that growth translates into physical work on the ground: land preparation, lifting, material handling, concrete work, utilities and infrastructure build-out. Markets including Dallas-Fort Worth, Washington, D.C., Chicago and Phoenix are expected to remain among the most active technology-driven construction areas.
“AI is accelerating investment in data centers and infrastructure, but the bigger opportunity is understanding where that work is happening. Our goal is to help contractors, dealers and rental companies move beyond the headlines by turning market data into practical insight they can use to make smarter decisions about where to invest and grow.”
Said Nick Mavrick, CEO of BiltData.ai.
The report also keeps agriculture in view. While the largest metropolitan areas dominate construction spending, Merlo and BiltData.ai’s analysis of 179 Bureau of Economic Analysis economic areas found that the top 40 agricultural markets account for more than 70% of agricultural employment. For a manufacturer active in telehandlers and material-handling equipment, that rural equipment economy remains an important part of the broader market picture.
By sector, the report forecasts $1.026 trillion in residential construction spending, $741 billion in commercial construction, $684 billion in industrial construction, including manufacturing and data center development, and $399 billion in infrastructure investment by 2031.
“The value of this report lies in helping businesses move from reacting to planning. Understanding where demand is expected to grow gives decision makers the confidence to invest in the right markets and position equipment more effectively, ultimately supporting them to effectively plan for sustainable growth.”
Renken added.
U.S. construction growth is becoming more regional, more data-driven and increasingly tied to industrial, digital and infrastructure investment. For Merlo America, the report is is a way to connect market intelligence with the practical decisions that shape equipment demand, from dealer coverage to rental fleet planning and contractor investment.
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